I'm thinking of selling most of my stock holdings(play money) and putting it in bitcoin. Good idea or nah?
If I ever want to make any money for retirement I feel crypto is the faster way. Also, how many of you have sold your non-crypto investments to go long on bitcoin? I'm still going to keep my IRA and in the future contribute 50% to my IRA and 50% to crypto.
When the market dropped last March, my net worth dropped by over a million dollars (-22%)
I’ve been retired for 2.5 years now, and I pop in here from time to time to tell people how things are going. I do it because I am encouraged to do so (by you nice folks) and I like to share what I learned so far. Feel free to ask me anything you like. My first post - a 1 year in reflection + FIRE story And my 2 year follow up here I’m a patient person, a future-oriented person, and these characteristics helped me to persist in the long-term planning I did when I was working towards FI/RE. It helped me hold on to my investment in crypto as it soared (Stick to your plan, man: I took some profits, which is how I jumped the queue to FIRE earlier than expected and with more than I needed, though I was heavy on the FI/RE path before that). I am also a semi-rational person (I think), who has played out a number of scenarios in my head many times. In fact – I had to do that to feel confident to retire in the first place. What if ____ (fill in catastrophic thing) happens?… each time I figured out how I would survive and most of the survival plans fell out to: keep cool and sit tight (a couple of them included “and go back to work.”) Considering how the stock market and economy in general are cyclical, I had gone through the “what do you do when there is a crash and your net worth drops significantly?” (note the crash part is not “if”, but “when”). The answer, as previously mentioned, was “sit on the porch and watch your sunflowers grow.” There was a conversation in (I think) one of my posts last year where after the market had dropped a small amount I mentioned I had just chilled through it (while others flipped out and panic-sold and were then kicking themselves) and someone on here snarkily replied “well, wait until you see a REAL drop, then we will see what you do!” Well Snarko VonSnarkington, this post is for you. As you might recall, the month of March was brutal, with many days showing huge losses in the stock markets. Not only did the market drop precipitously but my historically uncorrelated asset bitcoin shit the bed as well (a universal rush to cash?) leaving me just over $1M poorer net-worth-wise. My portfolio consists of real estate (my old house that I now rent out), index funds, and bitcoin. I outright own my current house (sold my bond funds to buy the house) and a piece of shit truck that I love. I also own a cat free and clear. So what did I do as my portfolio took a double barreled shotgun to the face?!?!? Not a goddamn thing. Ok, that’s a lie. I loss-harvested 90k worth of index funds which have since recovered and then some. I held tight. I held strong. I built shelves for my workshop out of salvaged lumber. Psychologically I have to say I felt off – it was not fun, and it was not Zen (though I tried brother, I tried). I had to argue with myself “well, this is one of those situations that test your mettle, meboyo…” and “wow, how is this going to play out… nervous… yuck…” but even though I experienced emotions, there was never even the option in my mind to sell in order to protect capital. It never appealed to me as a wise option and I had no compulsion to do so. For years I have made an informed decision to commit to this strategy I believe in, and damnit I am going to stick by it. I own my house. I know how to cook. I have health insurance and a rainy-day fund. I am retired, by design, because I stick to the plan until it no longer makes any sense – and this was a case where it looked like things were going to be ok (maybe it will take 3 years, but ok nonetheless). I had no idea we would see a stock/crypto recovery so quickly. By the end of this August when I updated my monthly spreadsheet, I had crossed back above where I was just before the crash. As of last week my net worth is 10% higher than it was before the crash. I also used the confusion in the marketplace in April to buy a beautiful old house to live in (and it has a huge detached workshop!) in a new, lower COL city (with cash, at a discount). Who the hell knows what happens next with this economy, politics, health, meteors, and the old Gods of Cthulu, but I’ve got one “been there, done that” under my belt now and I feel like I played it well by not playing at all. If anyone is looking for me, I’m out back in the workshop, making smoke and dust and a general mess as I teach myself woodworking and metalworking to enhance my primitive art constructs. Feel free to ask any questions, and when shit gets weird, remember to breathe.
I've learned a lot by surfing these subs. I internalized it and am really happy with where I am. I wanted to take a minute to pay it forward and distill what I've internalized into first principles. First, a bit on my background. I was always interested in being FI and know that money doesn't equal freedom, but it is an aspect of freedom (if nothing else, freedom from worrying about meeting basic needs). I was saving heavily in my mid 20's but was also working for a nonprofit. I was saving 50% of my income but it honestly wasn't amounting to all that much. I wound up spending about a year teaching myself data science before and after work. I was really motivated by the field and, luckily for me, it turns out to be quite lucrative. I also started skydiving. That meant moving to a shared 1 bedroom apartment with somebody I butted heads with so I could afford it and not overly sacrifice savings goals. That was a tough call because skydiving is expensive, but it also made me much more risk tolerant and a generally happier and less reactive human. Skydiving taught me that most of my fears were unfounded (evolution predisposes you to fear more than you have to) so I geared up for a big life change. When I was good enough at data science, I quit my job in the nonprofit and moved to San Francisco to do a 3 month bootcamp program. Everybody thought I was nuts. That drained my savings virtually down to the last dime (with no debt though). I got my first job in the industry making very little money in a role where I would learn a lot. I loved it and got a promotion in (I shit you not) 2 weeks of being on the job. That was my first 6 figure income. Zoom forward four years and I'm at a major company with a significant equity stake, financially comfortable, and having just bought a home. Not quite yet FIRE but getting close depending on how my company stock does. Obviously everybody's path is different. But principles are more universal. With all that, here are the main principles that lead to my success:
Find the global maximum. I was top of my game in that nonprofit with a relatively good income and title, but I was growing unhappy and knew I wouldn't make my longterm goals. It was a tough call to quit, drain my savings, and move. But I did it and now I feel like I'm in a global personal maximum for life satisfaction, earning, etc. This means longterm thinking
Stay balanced. I almost burned myself out on FIRE multiple times. I started seeing everything as costs. Be scrappy on everything but what makes you most come alive. That's crucial for longterm motivation
The best investments are always in yourself. Active recovery, eduction, socializing, etc. are the best investments you can make. They're bad investments on the short term but great on the longterm
Save on housing until you're ready to purchase a home. My rule was that I'd live with roommates until I had enough for a down payment. When covid happened, I decided I wouldn't buy a place until the market rebounded so I let my investments sit until they rebounded, sold, and purchased a home. Most people lose too much money on housing
Never pay interest. This is an exaggeration but it's the biggest lifetime expense for more people. I pay some interest but both my small car loan and mortgage are below 3% interest. That means, with inflation, my money is likely better in the stock market than paying back those loans. So apart from that interest, I've been lucky enough to manage to avoid it like the plague
Take risks and experiment. Most people are way too risk adverse, scared to place strategic bets. I've lost a lot of money on risky things but have gained so much more in experience. Spending thousands on bitcoin miners in the early days while on a shoestring budget? Lost a lot on that. But it resulted in learning an appropriate way to buy crypto and the net effect was many more thousands of dollars in gains
Have mentors/models. If you don't do this explicitly, you default to modeling your behavior on whoever is around you. Think of who your top models for behavior are (financial, relationship, etc) and figure out what makes them tick. For me it was Mr. Money Moustache, some abundance-oriented technology thought leaders, and some anti-consumer friends who were militant about how owning things doesn't make you happy
Don't defer pleasure. I came to realize that many of my thoughts on retirement were quite Catholic (thanks, dad). In other words, I was deferring pleasure until retirement like my Catholic father was deferring pleasure until the afterlife. Be fiercely present and enjoy today. Finances are only one part of life satisfaction
Have an abundance and growth mindset. Most people think of money as a scarce resource. It's not. Anybody can generate it given enough time and effort. Think big picture and work incrementally towards it rather than accepting the career progression of your peers or employer. Most people underestimate how much employers will recognize a strong sense of drive and personal responsibility
Change is necessary. For the Buddhists, that's the source of all suffering. Do we want to sacrifice the mediocre reality today for the option of a better reality tomorrow? Most people are so change and uncertainty adverse they can't adapt to more beneficial situations. Being open and curious and optimistic about change is necessary, otherwise the mediocre today seems like a better bet or you'll change and then quickly regress. The opportunity cost for change is whatever situation you currently find yourself in. Make sure you're ok with this and have the confidence to course correct if you get in over your head
TL;DR - Reality is malleable. You can achieve whatever you want as long as you take a step back, strategize, and then kick some ass. If you adopt some principles and play the long game, you'll ace this whole life thing Edit: Glad this got so much attention. I feel like I've paid forward the mindset and benefits this sub helped me create. Thanks for being part of that!
Hello fellow traders! I'd like to buy 10 stocks which I'll keep for the next 10 years or more. I'm looking for stocks in industries that will boom. Amazon Google Tesla Apple like stocks. I think important industries in my list will be the following: 5G, Cloud, Software & Services, Health Technology, Healthcare Technology and Biotech. (Important industries missed listing?) I realise that of the 10 maybe 15 stocks I pick some will disappear or will collapse.
A Detailed Summary of Every Single Reason Why I am Bullish on Ethereum
The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.
This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.
As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS. After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later. Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned. While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.
EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity
As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!
Layer 2 Scaling
In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more
DeFi and Composability
If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution! Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself on the DeFi Pulse website.
NFTs and tokeniation
NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA player Spencer Dinwiddie tokenized his own NBA contract.)
Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.
One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.
The state of global markets
With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory. While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.
Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity
Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.
The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer
One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.
This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (Jitsi for the zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase. Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.
Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform
Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999). Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant. Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.
ETH distribution is decentralised
Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.
Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself. Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)
ETH 2.0 - Huge scaling and better tokenomics.
EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity - ETH issuance will be super low and could go negative in the coming years.
Layer 2 Scaling - Literally dozens of different solutions/projects. Many of which are live on mainnet now.
DeFi and Composability - Money legos and open source code allowing for fast development and unprecedented innovation in the world of finance.
NFTs and tokenisation - Tokenise everything. No, seriously.
Institutional Adoption - Ethereum has the most enterprise partners (EEA) + the Baseline protocol is bullish AF.
Institutional Investment - Grayscale investments now owns 2% of ETH supply and growing. With institutional adoption comes awareness of the benefits of being an ETH holder and staker. ETH will complement the growing trend of companies holding Bitcoin.
The state of global markets - Crypto is just about the only asset class not at an ATH and the system Ethereum wants to replace is looking very broken.
Improving UX and abstracting away complexity - Human readable addresses and smart contract wallets which even your mother could use.
The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer - No ETH killer clearly sticks out from the rest. This makes it hard for one of them to create a big network effect.
Network effects - Ethereum has by far the largest network effect and as Bitcoin has shown us, the network effect is extremely important.
Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform - Super secure under ETH 2.0, no more tolerance of DAO like forks and a neutral platform for adversaries like the US and China to transact on so that they don’t have to trust each other’s banks.
ETH distribution is decentralised - Years of proof of work have put ETH in the hands of many. ETH supply is more decentralised than Bitcoin.
The community - Super duper mega friendly. Shoutout to the kind folks the EthFinance daily!
The Four Horsemen - Signs of Incoming Crashes, and things.
Hey y'all! I'm going to keep this brief, but I was asked by Mr. October to post this, since I briefly described this on a discord we're both in. I do a ton of market analysis, mostly on alternative data, so I don't have cool superpowers potentially, but I do fancy myself a good trendspotter. I wanted to share what I call my Four Horseman metric in brief, and I will fill it in more later when I get back/free from the clutches of homework. The Four Horsemen:
Rapid plunge in BTC/USD - This is an interesting metric, and makes sense if you understand that BTC has evolved from a hedge to a speculation play, which is why it arguably moves in lockstep with SPY most days. However, an interesting property I and many others have noticed is BTC seems to be a leading indicator of market movements, and rapid climbs/plunges tend to signal an incoming correction. See the chart on September 2nd, 2020 for an example.
NOPE_MAD >= 3 End of Day: NOPE, or Net Option Pricing Effect, in principle looks at how dominant options flow trading volume is on the market compared to the more conventional shares volume. When the NOPE_MAD (median absolute deviation) compared to the previous 30 days is 3 deviations higher than normal, this means a red day the next day about 88% of the time (backtested to Mar 2019). You can check NOPE_MAD intraday here - https://thenope.info/nope/default/charts/SPY/2020-10-13 (the URL changes per day, so tomorrow will be 2020-10-14)
The VIX rising with SPY - This usually is part of the parabolic phase, and means a metric fuck ton of calls are being written, which is pushing up option prices across the board. Usually VIX is a measure of downies-volatility, so when it and SPY both go up, it's a Very Bad Thing. Also see September 2nd, 2020.
Small Tech/Caps Leading Big Tech/Caps - This is a more interesting metric, and only makes sense when you understand what causes a Minsky Moment style correction (irrational exuberance). In a stable market, big caps tend to act as a source of strength/safe harbor, and when small caps are leading, this tends to signal intense bull mania, which usually precedes a correction.
Microsoft going up parabolically - Microsoft is our favorite boomer stock for a reason - it is much more stable than AMZN or AAPL, and doesn't like large movements. I noticed anecdotally this year that right before all the big tech corrections (3-5 days out) MSFT goes up exponentially, often more than the rest of the market, because smart money is looking for safe harbor.
I'd be happy to answer any questions later! Edit: Wanted to add some stuff given the comments below.
I did not write this to predict a crash based on today's behavior, but to generally inform about a metric I use to detect Minsky Moment style crashes. For more info on that - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment
Lots of these indicators are new, and due in large part due to the relative fuckiness of the current market. Bitcoin and SPY did not track until this year, and I only noticed the Microsoft effect I mentioned since about 6/5 onwards. This likely also happens in other boomesafe stocks, but MSFT is by far my largest active trading position, hence why I noticed it.
I will be adding a post soon specifically dedicated to the interpretation of NOPE and NOPE_MAD.
Welcome to my overly long TED Talk about Tarkov's overall economy and the balancing issues within itself. First, before I continue with the analysis of Tarkovs economy, let me throw some definitions your way, as understanding these things is very important to understanding what i'm about to explain. FAUCETS Faucets are feature or design decision that puts value into an economy. SINKS Sinks are features or design decisions that take away value from an economy. NETS. Not sure if this is an actual definition, but a Net is something that blocks value from falling into a sink. It's not a faucet, but it acts like one. LOOT ECONOMY The loot economy is essentially the 'FIR Economy'. It encompasses every piece of loot found in raid, even loot taken off of players bodies that doesn't have the FIR tag. THE PLAYER-DRIVEN ECONOMY The player driven economy is essentially the Flea Market. Now it's important to understand what makes an economy sustainable. A stable economy would have to have tons of sinks for players to put their money into, while providing faucets for players to take money from. EFT's faucets include... -FIR LOOT from PMC RUNS -LOOT Gets Vendored -LOOT Gets Sold on Flea (Requires Level 15) -LOOT Gets Crafted Into FIR Items (Requires Hideout) -CRAFTED LOOT Gets Vendored -CRAFTED LOOT Gets Sold on FLEA (Requires Level 15) -CRAFTED LOOT Gets Used -PvP LOOT from PMC RUNS -LOOT Gets Vendored -LOOT Gets Used -FIR LOOT from SCAV RUNS -LOOT Gets Vendored -LOOT Gets Sold on Flea (Requires Level 15) -LOOT Gets Crafted Into FIR Items (Requires Hideout) -CRAFTED LOOT Gets Vendored -CRAFTED LOOT Gets Sold on FLEA (Requires Level 15) -CRAFTED LOOT Gets Used -PvP LOOT from SCAV RUNS -LOOT Gets Vendored -LOOT Gets Used -BITCOIN FARM (Requires Hideout) -And i'm sure many more than i'm missing An economy also needs to have a lot of sinks to keep an economy flowing and stop players from amassing massive hordes of wealth. EFT's sinks include... -Lost Gear from PMC RUNS (Recycles back into the 'PvP LOOT from PMC and SCAV RUNS' Faucets. But for another player.) -Flea Market Taxes -Medical Costs (Optional) -Food Costs (Optional and Minor Sink) -Hideout Upgrade Costs (Temporary Sink, Eventually turns into Faucet.) -Scav Case Losses (Gambling) -and a probably a few more that have slipped my mind. Maybe you can already start to see some issues, and I haven't even started yet. EFT's economy also has Nets, EFT's nets include -Insurance -Armor and Weapon Repairs -Items in Secure Container (Maybe that would be counted here?) EFT's economy is not sustainable. In order for an economy like EFT's to continue, they would need far more sinks to create a sense of scarcity. Veterans say that money is far too easy to make, but that's not the issue, money is far too hard to lose. Ever wonder why you see a lot of squads using meta gear? Its because they all get their insurance back whenever they die, as it only takes 1 surviving member of a 5-man team, to secure his dead squadmates gear, and chuck it in a bush. Eliminating most of a squads expenses. Solo players on the other hand, don't have this luxury, and will use a lot of low-end to mid-tier gear, expecting to lose it, and get it back in insurance, because it's not worth picking up. BSG needs to incorporate more sinks and adjust their nets in a way that fixes it, otherwise the game will forever rely on wipes, and there will never be proper scarcity in the economy. I want everyone to try and remember what it was like when you first booted up the game, had no fucking idea what you were doing, and how i'm sure many of you were scared shitless about losing your last P226 or Grach, and elated about finding a rifle, probably not knowing it shot dog-shit .366 rounds. Now, i've spoken to a lot of new players, and a lot them have this sense of overwhelming anxiety about playing the game once they realise that death has consequences. This anxiety also helps tremendously with selling the games atmosphere, but as people get more experienced and more wealthy, that anxiety goes away, and so does the games atmosphere. Its not possible to put us all back into the shoes of a new player, as a lot of the anxiety is caused by not knowing what the hell is going on or that you have an infinite source of income to the left of your PMC. But it is possible to bring back *SOME* of that anxiety by introducing gear scarcity into the Loot Economy. There is almost no gear scarcity in the Loot Economy for a few reasons. 1. The flea-market allows people to buy whatever they want, whenever they want. -There's a few ways to change this, removing it IS NOT the answer. 2. Playing in a squad tremendously increases your chances of getting your gear back in insurance. 3. Trader prices for Meta gear are far too low and Meta gear is far to easily obtained from raiders, bosses, and players wearing this gear; because it's so easy to obtain. Now these things COULD be fixed, but if you did it would make a lot of gear useless. Because there are more issues. Ammo and armor balance is scuffed. Let me just give a few examples. Everyone wants 7n31. It's a hot new ammo that everyone wants to try out, yet its sold out every trader reset. To counter this, BSG adds it as a craftable in the hideout. Now, it's all over the flea market, but very expensive, at the time of writing this it's 1700 RUB around. Pricey. Now 7n31 coupled with the rate of fire of most of the guns that shoot it, goes through level 4 and 5 like butter, and even level 6 pretty well. But this is where we start to run into issues. By increasing the supply of 7n31 and many other AP ammos, you've essentially massively decreased the effectiveness of many Higher-End armors. "Oh well, that's fine, now newer and rats players have a chance of getting through all these chad armors." Except that's not what happens. Let me use a better example. M62 is $5 a bullet. It completely ignores level 5 and goes through level 6 like butter. It is widely available, and very cheap. Why would you use Level 5 and 6 when going up against this ammo? There is no reason, Level 5 and 6 only slows you down when your up against AP Ammo. That's fine though, this rare and exotic ammo should be able to go through armor like its nothing, that's why I pay exorbitant amounts of money and grind to obtain this ammo. Except its not rare and exotic, its extremely common, with very little work to obtain, and this goes for a lot of the bullets in the game. Most Meta ammos are reasonably affordable and put down level 5 and 6 easily, which begs the question, why would I use Level 5 and 6? Why would I spend 800k on a slick, when someone can spend $5 to ignore it. This goes into another issue that I see a lot of people talking about, the TTK (Time To Kill) The TTK isn't going to be fixed by adding 5 more health to the thorax, it will be fixed when armor actually does something. The only thing 5 more health on the Thorax does is make it more expensive to run AP ammo against unarmored players, and make bolt actions useless compared to DMRs. TTK also effects the New Player experience, a lot of new player will simply spam their little makarov at big bad Altyn man and wonder why it did nothing. That's because armor isn't hard to get either, its harder to get than the ammo that pens it sure, but it's still very easy to get if you know how to get it. Meanwhile that new player is wondering why everyone is going through their cool new level 4 ceramic armor, and they're bullets aren't doing anything. Now if they fixed the the Loot Economy and made armor, ammo and other gear harder to find, it would do nothing, because the traders sell ammo extremely cheap and armor extremely expensive compared to the ammo. Which means armor is going to get burnt, found, repaired and used until that person dies and the armor gets picked up again or scrapped at fence. Now the traders, from what I understand, are supposed to eventually have extremely limited stock and options. However, seemingly, the community hates the idea of sold out traders. I have an aneurysm everytime I see a post complaining about super high-pen ammo being sold out, and then immediately see the supply go up the next day, like what just happened with 7n31. Because you're making. The problem. Worse. Now, I want to believe that BSG will continue with their plans to make an economy based on scarcity, but this community has an issue with crying about a lot of dumb shit. Which, don't get me wrong, if the vast majority agrees that something needs to change, it probably should. We play the game more than the devs, we know what is fun. But when you guys complain about something as sophisticated as tarkov's economy, and you have no idea what you're talking about, thats bad. I wouldn't be making this section of the post, if I thought that BSG would ignore the complaints. But they have this habit of caving in to the community's crys. Please BSG, do not do this. TL;DR: In order to have a good scarcity based economy, BSG needs to have more sinks in the economy to take money out of the hands of wealthy players, and they need to make ammo more expensive compared to the price of armor. The TTK issue is solved by making ammo more rare than armor, community needs to stop crying about stuff they don't understand. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.
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